ENSYMORA Energy systems modelling, research and analysis

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Publications from ENSYMORA Project



Final report.pdf



Papers published:
 
Andersen F.M., Larsen H.V., Gaardestrup R.B. (2013a) Long term forecasting of hourly electricity consumption in local areas in Denmark. Appl Energy 2013;110:147-62. doi:j.apenergy.2013.04.046
 
Andersen F.M., Larsen H.V., Boomsma T.K. (2013b) Long-term forecasting of hourly electricity load: Identification of consumption profiles and segmentation of customers. Energy Conversion and Management 2013;68:244-52. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0196890413000381
 
Andersen F,M., Larsen H.V., Juul N., Gaardestrup R.B.. (2014a) Differentiated long term projections of the hourly electricity consumption in local areas. The case of Denmark West.  Applied Energy 135 (2014) 523–538. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.08.075
 
Andersen F. M., Larsen H. V., Kitzing L., Morthorst P. E. (2014b) Who gains from hourly time-of-use retail prices on electricity? Analysis of consumption profiles for categories of Danish electricity customers WIREs Energy Environ 2014. doi:10.1002/wene.120
 
Boomsma, T.K., and S.-E. Fleten. (2012). Discussion on “Profit maximization of a power plant”, European Journal of Control, Volume 18(1), 2012, pp. 55-56, doi:10.1016/S0947-3580(12)70522-8
 
Boomsma, T.K., N. Juul and S.-E. Fleten (2014). Bidding in sequential electricity markets, European Journal of Operational Research 238, 2014, pp. 797-809, doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2014.04.027
 
Delikaraoglou, S., K. Capion, N. Juul and T. K. Boomsma (2013). Optimal charging of electric drive vehicles: A dynamic programming approach, in: Grid Integration of Electricity Vehicles in Open Electricity Markets, eds.: Q. Wu, 2013, pp. 113-128, doi:10.1002/9781118568040.ch5
 
Iversen, E.B., J. M. Morales, H. Madsen. (2014a). Optimal Charging of an Electric Vehicle using a Markov Decision Process. Applied Energy, Vol. 123, pp. 1-12, 2014. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.02.003
 
Iversen, E.B., J. K. Møller, J. M. Morales, H. Madsen. (2014b). Probabilistic Forecasts of Solar Irradiance using Stochastic Differential Equations. Environmetrics, Vol. 25, pp. 152-164, 2014. doi:10.1002/env.2267
 
Iversen, E.B., J. K. Møller, J. M. Morales, H. Madsen. (2015). Short-term Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Speed using Stochastic Differential Equations. International Journal of Forecasting, in print, 2015. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207015000096
 
Jónsson, T., Pinson, P., Nielsen, H.A., Madsen, H., and Nielsen, T.S. (2013). Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions.  IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, volume 4, issue  1, pages 210 – 218, Jan. 2013. doi:10.1109/TSTE.2012.2212731
 
Juul, N., and T. K. Boomsma (2013). Investments and operation in an integrated power and transport system, in: Grid Integration of Electricity Vehicles in Open Electricity Markets, eds.: Q. Wu, 2013, pp. 82-113, doi:10.1002/9781118568040.ch4
 
Kitzing, L., Mitchell, C., Morthorst, PE (2012). 'Renewable energy policies in Europe: Converging or diverging?', Energy Policy, vol 51, pp. 192-201. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.064
 
Kitzing, L. (2014). 'Risk implications of renewable support instruments: Comparative analysis of feed-in tariffs and premiums using a mean-variance approach', Energy, vol 64, pp. 495-505. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2013.10.008
 
Klinge Jacobsen, H., Pade, L.-L., Schröder, S.T. and Kitzing, L., (2014). Cooperation Mechanisms To Achieve EU Renewable Targets, Renewable Energy 63, 345-352. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2013.09.035
 
Kwon, P.S., Østergaard, P.A. (2012). Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050, Energy, Volume 46, Issue 1, October 2012. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.022
 
Kwon, P.S., Østergaard, P.A. (2013). Priority order in using biomass resources – Energy systems analyses of future scenarios for Denmark, Energy, Volume 63, 15 December 2013, Pages 86-94, doi:10.1016/j.energy.2013.10.005
 
Kwon, P.S., Østergaard, P.A. (2014). Assessment and evaluation of flexible demand in a Danish future energy scenario, Applied Energy, Volume 134, 1 December 2014, Pages 309-320, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.08.044
 
Madsen, H., Jacopo Parvizi, Rasmus Halvgaard, Leo Emil Sokoler, John B. Jørgensen, Lars Henrik Hansen, Klaus B. Hilger (2014). “Controlling of the Electricity Load in Future Electric Energy Systems”, in Handbook of Clean Energy Systems, Wiley. http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1118388585.html
 
Maurovich-Horvat, L., T. K. Boomsma and A. Siddiqui, (2014). Transmission and wind investments in a deregulated electricity market, IEEE Transactions of Power Systems, 2014, doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2367107
 
Meibom, P., Klaus B. Hilger, Henrik Madsen, Dorthe Winther (2013) “Energy Comes Together in Denmark: The Key to a Future Fossil-Free Danish Power System”, IEEE Power and Energy Margazin, 11, pp. 46-55. http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?reload=true&arnumber=6582012
 
Morales, J.M. P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2012). A Transmission-cost based model to estimate the amount of market-integrable wind resources. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 27(2):1060-1069, doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2011.2177281
 
Morales, J.M., A. J. Conejo, K. Liu, J. Zhong (2012). Pricing electricity in pools with wind producers. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 27(3):1366-1376, doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2011.2182622
 
Morales, J.M., M. Zugno, S. Pineda, and P. Pinson (2014a). Redefining the merit order of stochastic generation in forward markets, Letters Section of IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 29(2), 2014, pp. 992-993, doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2013.2288015
 
Morales, J.M., M. Zugno, S. Pineda, and P. Pinson (2014b). Electricity market clearing with improved scheduling of stochastic production, European Journal of Operational Research 235, 2014, pp. 765-774, doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2013.11.013
 
Pinson, P., Reikard, G., Bidlot, J.-R. (2012a). Probabilistic forecasting of the wave energy flux, Applied Energy, Volume 93, May 2012, Pages 364-370. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.12.040
 
Pinson, P., Girard, R. (2012b). Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation. Applied Energy, Volume 96, August 2012, Pages 12-20. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.004
 
Zugno, M., Juan Miguel Morales, Pierre Pinson, Henrik Madsen (2013a). "A bilevel model for electricity retailers' participation in a demand response market environment", Energy Economics 36, pp. 182—197. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.12.010
 
Østergaard P.A., Andersen F.M., Kwon P.S. (2015). Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand. System effects of electrical vehicles and individual heat pumps being flexible or not. Accepted to be published in: International journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management
 
 
Books published:
 
Morales, J.M., Antonio Conejo, Henrik Madsen, Pierre Pinson, Marco Zugno (2013); “Integrating Renewables in Electricity Markets”, Springer, 429 p. http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9781461494102
  

Articles submitted to special issue:
 
Alnæs, E.N., R. B. Grøndahl, S.-E. Fleten and T. K. Boomsma (2015). Insights from Actual Day-Ahead Bidding of Hydropower, submitted to International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management
 
Ea Energy Analysis (2015). Probabilistic Modeling of Reserves using Balmorel, submitted to International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management
 
Henningsen, G., Arne Henningsen, Sascha T. Schröder, Simon Bolwig. The Development of Environmental Productivity: the Case of Danish Energy Plants'. Submitted to International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management
 
Juul, N., G. Pantuso, J. E. Banning Iversen and T. K. Boomsma (2015). Strategies for Charging Electric Vehicles in the Electricity Market, submitted to International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management
 
Kitzing, L., Weber, C. (2015). Support mechanisms for renewables: How risk exposure influences investment incentives, submitted to International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management
 
Møller N.F., Andersen F.M. (2015). An econometric model for analyzing electricity demand response to price changes at the intra-day horizon.  Submitted to International journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management
 
Pantuso, G., J. M. Morales Gonzalez, M. Zugno, and N. Juul (2015). Evaluating the potential of partial Benders decompositions for the Stochastic Unit Commitment Problem, submitted to International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management
 
 
Articles submitted to other journals:
 
Andersen, J., D. Heide-Jørgensen, N. Detlefsen and T. K. Boomsma (2015). Balancing supply and demand in an electricity system: A mathematical programming approach, submitted to Annals of Operations Research
 
Conejo (2013). “A Robust Optimization Approach to Energy and Reserve Dispatch in Electricity Markets”, submitted to Operations Research.
 
Iversen, E.B., J. K. Møller, J. M. Morales, H. Madsen. (2015a). Inhomogeneous Markov Models for Describing Driving Patterns. Submitted, 2015.

Iversen, E.B., J. K. Møller, J. M. Morales, Pierre-Julien Trombe, H. Madsen. (2015b). Leveraging Stochastic Differential Equations for Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power using a Dynamic Power Curve. Submitted, 2015.
 
Iversen, E.B., R. Juhl, J. K. Møller, J. M. Morales, J. Kleissl, H. Madsen. (2015c).  Spatio-Temporal Forecasting by Coupled Stochastic Differential Equations: Applications to Solar Power. Submitted, 2015.

Kitzing, L., Juul, N., Drud, M. and Boomsma T.K., (2014). A real options approach to analyse wind power investments under different support systems. Paper submitted to journal.
 
Kitzing, L., Mitchell, C. (2015). ‘Achieving energy transitions: Reducing risk and creating an enabling environment’. Paper submitted to journal.
 
Kitzing, L., N. Juul, M. Drud and T. K. Boomsma (2015). A real options approach to analyse wind power investments under different support schemes, submitted to Energy Policy 
 
Thavlov, A., H. Madsen. (2015). A Nonlinear Stochastic Model for an Office Building with Air Infiltration. Submitted, 2015.
 
Zugno, M., J.M. Morales, H. Madsen. (2015). Decision Support Tools for Electricity Retailers, Wind Power and CHP Plants Using Probabilistic Forecasts. Submitted to International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 2015.
 
Zugno, M., A. J. Conejo (2015). A Robust Optimization Approach to Energy and Reserve Dispatch in Electricity Markets. Submitted to European Journal of Operational Research
 
 
Work in progress:
 
Juul, N., N. Framroze Møller, and G. Pantuso. Electric Vehicle Participation in the Regulating Market; A Stochastic Programming Approach
 
Pantuso, G., J. M. Morales Gonzalez, M. Zugno, and N. Juul, Partial Benders Decomposition: Application to the Stochastic Unit Commitment Problem
 
Katz, J, Kitzing, L, Schröder, S T, Møller Andersen, F, Morthorst, P E, ‘Dynamic taxation of residential electricity  in Denmark: Can it help to activate demand response?’
 
 
Conference papers and presentations:
 
S.E. Fleten, The degree of rationality in actual bidding of hydropower at Nord Pool. I: 10th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE conference proceedings 2013 ISBN 978-1-4799-2008-2. s. 1-8. doi:10.1109/EEM.2013.6607389
 
S.E. Fleten, Hydropower bidding using linear decision rules. PhD Winter School 2013, Stochastic programming with applications in energy and natural resources; 2013-04-07 - 2013-04-13
 
S.E. Fleten, Bidding hydroelectric power via decision rules. 13th International Conference on Stochastic Programming; 2013-07-08 - 2013-07-12
 
T. K. Boomsma, Bidding in sequential electricity markets: The Nordic case, ICSP, Bergamo, 2013. http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/docviews/abstract.php?id=40213
 
M. Drud, Sequential Investments and Capacity Choice: A real options approach. Energy Finance, Trondheim, Norway, 2012
 
G. Pantuso, J. M. Morales Gonzalez, M. Zugno, and N. Juul, Benders decomposition strategies for the Stochastic Unit Commitment Problem, Euro Conference on Stochastic Programming, Paris, 2014
 
Ravn, Hans: Dynamic Power System Investment Modeling and Analysis, Risø International Energy Conference 2011.
 
Schröder, S.T., Kitzing, L. (2012). 'The effects of meshed offshore grids on offshore wind investment – a real options analysis'. in Proceedings of EWEA 2012 - European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition. European Wind Energy Association (EWEA). http://proceedings.ewea.org/annual2012/allfiles2/1356_EWEA2012presentation.pdf
 
Kitzing, L., Schröder, S.T. (2012). 'Regulating Future Offshore Grids: Economic Impact Analysis on Wind Parks and Transmission System Operators', 12th IAEE European Energy Conference, Venice. (Also published as: EUI Working Paper RSCAS 2012/65, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, Loyola de Palacio Programme on Energy Policy, http://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/24679).
 
Kitzing, L., Ravn, H. (2013). 'Support mechanisms and risk: Implications on the Nordic electricity system'. 10th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) 2013. IEEE. doi:10.1109/EEM.2013.6607341
 
Morales, J.M. and A. J. Conejo, Pricing Electricity in Pools with Stochastic Producers, INFORMS 2012 Annual Meeting, October 14-17, 2012, Phoenix, US
 
J. M. Morales, M. Zugno, S. Pineda, and P. Pinson, Clearing Forward Markets Based on Forecasts of Stochastic Production, 26th European Conference on Operational Research, July 1-4, 2013, Rome, Italy
 
J. M. Morales and H. Madsen, A Method to Identify Competitive Wind Locations, 20th Conference of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies (IFORS 2014), July 13-18, 2014, Barcelona, Spain
 
Møller, J.K., E. B. Iversen, H. Madsen. Probabilistic wind power forecast by stochastic differential equation models. The 23rd Annual TIES Conference, June 2013, Anchorage, Alaska, 2013.
June 2013, Anchorage, Alaska, USA.
 
S. Pineda, J. M. Morales, M. Zugno, and P. Pinson, Electricity Market Clearing With Improved Scheduling of Stochastic Production, 13th International Conference on Stochastic Programming, July 8-12, 2013, Bergamo, Italy
 
M. Zugno, J. M. Morales, and H. Madsen (2014a), Robust Management of Combined Heat and Power Systems via Linear Decision Rules, In Proceedings of IEEE International Energy Conference (EnergyCon), May 13-16, 2014, Dubrovnik, Croatia
 
M. Zugno, J. M. Morales, and H. Madsen(2014b), An Affinely Adjustable Robust Optimization Approach to the Operation of Heat and Power Systems,  20th Conference of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies (IFORS), July 13-18, 2014, Barcelona, Spain
 
M. Zugno, J. M. Morales, P. Pinson and H. Madsen (2013b), Trading Wind Power Optimally as a Price-Making Agent in the Balancing Market, INFORMS 2013 Annual Meeting, October 6-9, 2013, Minnesota, USA